Revised Data Shows Biden’s Job Numbers Were Stronger Than Initially Reported

Newly adjusted employment data reveals that job growth under former President Joe Biden was significantly stronger than initially believed, with a major portion of the gains attributed to immigrant workers.

The latest labor market revisions, set to be reflected in Friday’s jobs report, will correct previous undercounts in employment figures, particularly in the household survey, which measures unemployment rates and demographic employment data. This adjustment follows an extensive Census Bureau effort to account for the surge in immigration over the past three years.

According to CNBC senior economics reporter Steve Liesman, “There has been a huge surge of immigrants into the United States over the past three years.” He noted that immigration was a key issue that President Donald Trump repeatedly attacked Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris on during the 2024 campaign.

Since the 2020 Census, an estimated 3.5 million immigrants have entered the United States, with 2.3 million of them now employed. Liesman explained that this influx had not been accurately reflected in earlier job reports.

“So, this will be tomorrow the largest upward revision to what is called the household survey,” Liesman told MSNBC’s Katy Tur. He clarified the distinction between the household survey and the more widely followed payroll survey.

“Now, just to be clear, the household survey gives us the unemployment rate. It gives us different ethnic data by race and gender, whereas the one that’s really followed by Wall Street is the payroll survey. This one has been pretty good and showed pretty strong job growth all along.”

However, he noted that the household survey had previously shown weaker numbers, which had led some to question the overall strength of the economy. “People would say, you know what, maybe the economy is weak because that’s what the household survey shows,” Liesman explained.

With the latest revisions, the household survey will now reflect the full scope of job growth that had gone uncounted due to immigration data gaps. While there will be some downward adjustments to the payroll survey, Liesman emphasized that the overall impact will confirm “strong job growth over the past several years.”

The adjusted figures could complicate Trump’s economic messaging, as the revisions may now allow him to claim record job growth under his presidency—despite the fact that the gains occurred primarily under Biden’s leadership.

As the new numbers become official, economists and political analysts alike will be watching to see how both parties respond to the corrected data and its impact on the broader economic narrative.